GOLD REBOUNDS TO RS 1.53 LAKH AS CRUDE PRICES EASE, BUT FED RATE FEARS THREATEN ANOTHER FALL

Gold saw a volatile session on September 11, rebounding from around Rs 1,50,800 to Rs 1,53,000 as crude prices eased from $110.40 towards $104.50, offering some relief to bullion.

MCX gold futures for the October contract fell below Rs 1,51,000 per 10 grams in the early session on Friday, but recovered those losses in the evening trade to Rs 1,53,401 (18:29 IST), up 0.7 percent over the past 24 hours.

Silver futures for the December contract also witnessed a volatile session, declining to a low of Rs 2,30,549 per kilogram in the morning trade and a recovery seen in the evening session to Rs 2,35,634 per kilogram (18:20 IST), up 0.7 percent from the previous close.

MCX spot gold declined to Rs 1,51,549 per 10 grams, and silver was pegged at Rs 2,29,113 per kilogram (06:36 IST).

Comex gold held its position at around $4,400 per ounce in the afternoon trade (12:42 IST), while silver inched up 0.17 percent to just above $65 per ounce over the past 24 hours.

According to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst (commodity and currency) at LKP Securities, gold traded with a gap-down opening as crude prices surged more than 16 percent this week, keeping pressure on bullion through higher inflation expectations and concerns over a tighter interest-rate outlook.

"With the upcoming Fed policy decision, the possibility of a rate hike or hawkish commentary from the Fed Chair could keep gold under pressure. Gold range can be seen between Rs 1,49,000 and Rs 1,54,000."

Meanwhile, the dollar settled at 95.57 (provisional) against the rupee on Friday, as crude oil prices recovered. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 1.14 percent to $101.31 per barrel, and Brent crude edged 1.44 percent down to $106.08 per barrel in New York.

Gold price outlook: US CPI print, Fed rate decision in focus

Market participants continued to price in the impact of the upcoming Fed policy decision. Thursday's US producer price data came in hot, up 0.4 percent, the fastest since May, adding to fears that price pressures are becoming sticky.

"All eyes now shift to today's US CPI print. It's the last big data point before the Fed's meeting on September 14-15, and markets are already pricing in a 70 percent chance of a rate hike. A hawkish surprise in CPI could push gold lower still. For now, the market is holding its breath, and gold is stuck between war-driven safe-haven demand and rate-hike anxiety," Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst (Commodities & Currencies) at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, said.

The analyst estimates that $4,300 remains the key psychological support level in the spot market, which is around Rs 1,51,000 on MCX. "As long as gold holds above this, we could see a bias upward toward $4,400-4,460 on the upside. That said, with the war dragging on and oil supply disruptions likely to keep energy prices elevated barring a major de-escalation, there's a real risk of a break below $4,300. In that scenario, we wouldn't be surprised to see international spot slip toward $4,240, with MCX gold testing Rs 1,48,000."

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2026-09-11T13:32:32Z