WHAT RBI GOVERNOR SAYS WILL MATTER MORE THAN WHAT HE DOES TOMORROW

The upcoming RBI Monetary Policy Committee Meeting on April 8, 2026, comes at a time when macro conditions have shifted due to global developments, particularly the ongoing West Asia conflict, which has pushed up crude prices and thrown the rupee off a cliff.

The bond markets has already priced in higher lending rates in the coming months. A rise in cost of borrowing erode corporate profits and weigh on stock prices. However, a poll of economists by CNBC-TV18 showed that no one expects a rate action from the central bank tomorrow.

The fact that inflation in India was too low before the war has given the RBI room to wait and watch.

So far, 80% of the economists polled by CNBC-TV18 do not expect a rate hike in 2026. That could change if Governor Sanjay Malhotra decides to sound hawkish or if the war drags on for longer.

The impact of the disruption emerging from West Asia is already visible, not just in the inflation estimates, but also in the growth projections for the Indian economy. Earlier estimates are unlikely to hold anymore.

The weakening currency has compounded the risk of inflation.

However, most of the respondents expect the RBI to act through liquidity measures rather than rate changes, including dollar supply tools and schemes to attract inflows.

Bond market expectations remain divided, with some participants anticipating liquidity support through open market operations (OMOs) or similar measures.

The policy stance is expected to remain cautious, with a focus on communication. The central bank’s guidance on liquidity, currency management, and handling global risks will be closely tracked by markets.

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2026-04-07T09:50:54Z